I have been more or less married to a scenario calling for much lower rates on the 30-Year T-Bond. However, I will have to rethink this if the December contract takes out the 158^31 target shown. The Hidden Pivot lies well below these levels and is my maximum target for the correction begun from 175^17 on July 8. The futures are currently trading around 162^11. I say I will have to reconsider my big-picture view because the 158^31 target could not be clearer or more compelling. The pattern from which it is is derived is that perfect. I have already published a target for yields on the 30-year of 2.658% (currently 2.616%). However, the target pattern is not nearly as appealing as the one in T-bonds, so it is the latter that I will trust. I should also note that, looking at the weekly and monthly charts, the big move down in T-Bonds, and the corresponding rise in yields, look no worse than the moderate corrections they are, at least so far. Here are their respective monthly charts — for T-Bonds, and T-Bond Yields. _______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 10;36 p.m. ET): The futures have crushed the 158^31 Hidden Pivot support (see inset, a new chart), suggesting they will eventually fall even lower, and yields will head still higher. My gut feeling is that we are not about to have an outbreak of inflation, but that the futures a falling to discount a strong improvement in the economy under Donald Trump. _______ UPDATE (Nov 15, 8:04 p.m.): A so-far weak bounce is struggling for loft, but there is immediate potential to 155^28, based on the pattern shown (click here for chart).
