USZ16 – Dec T-Bond (Last:164^08)
Author: Rick Ackerman
Published: October 4, 2016
The corrective pattern shown is clear and authoritative, implying that the futures’ impending interaction with the 165^27 midpoint Hidden Pivot will be crucial to our outlook for the short-to-intermediate term. I expect a tradable bounce from within a few ticks of p, but it it fails to materialize, bulls had better prepare for more slippage down to d=161^18. That would still leave some key lows near 161 recorded last Spring as last-ditch support and a potential launching pad for a ‘counterintuitive’ rally of consequences._______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 7:32 p.m.): Sellers pounded the futures to an intraday low at 165^09, well below the key support at 165^27 noted above. This will have bearish implications going forward — most likely in the form of more slippage to at least 163^22, the pattern’s ‘secondary pivot’. Alternatively, it would take a rally exceeding 168^13 by week’s end to suggest bulls are capable of turning things around, at least for the near-to-intermediate term. ________ UPDATE (Oct 10, 1:27 p.m.): The futures have taken a weak bounce after falling hard overnight to 163^21. The low is a single tick from the target provided here a week ago, when December T-Bonds were trading more than two points higher. They’ll need to top 164^08 on Tuesday to get out of trouble.
