Thursday’s selloff exceeded not only the 1207.30 downside target we’ve been using for nearly a week, but also the watershed low at 1207.00 recorded back in May. This is technically very damaging and would become still moreso if the selloff goes on to exceed February’s 1194.00 external low within the next few days. That would added to the imputed power of the downtrend, leaving only one last line of defense for bulls at 1198.00, the maximum downside target that can be projected using the daily chart (a=1383.50 on 7-11-16; b=1243.20 0n 10-07-16). _______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 8:07 p.m. EST): The December contract touched a low of 1201.30 on Friday, putting it on very thin ice. The supports flagged above at 1198.00 and 1194.00 remain crucial to the immediate picture, and their breach over the next day or two would have very bearish implications for what remains of 2016. Alternatively, a rally touching 1219.00 today would offer a smidgen of encouragement.
