Although a 204.05 target that I proffered here earlier has yet to be reached, it’s time to hang out an even more ambitious one at 209.50. The relevant pattern (see inset) is a pretty good one, even if the elongated A-B segment cries out for a more substantial point ‘A’ low. Note that a ‘mechanical’ buy at the red line would have produced a nice profit with almost no pain. Under the circumstances, I’ll recommend the same play from p2, using a stop-loss at 189.86. The target is close to the one at 21,101 that we’ve been using for the cash DJIA for nearly three weeks. As such, it looks appealing as a place to get short. I won’t recommend doing so, however, unless you’ve caught at least a part of the ride north. Since it’s possible DIA won’t retrace to our bid, you can substitute a ‘camouflage’ or ‘counterintuitive’ entry on a chart of lesser degree to increase your odds of getting aboard. That would also reduce the theoretical entry risk of $491 per round lot. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 11:55 a.m.): If DIA continues to show no inclination to pull back to our niggardly bid, we may try another entry tactic. Currently, I’m watching the 30-minute chart for ‘camouflage’ opportunities._______ UPDATE (Jan 10, 8:24 p.m.): I’ve refreshed the chart to show how a ‘counterintuitive’ buying set-up could take shape on Wednesday, affording us a speculative opportunity to test the water with a relatively low-risk entry. I’ll make this catch-as-catch-can, since I cannot foresee exactly what will happen, or how it might affect the idealized game plan I’ve sketched. _______ UPDATE (Jan 11, 8:58 p.m.): Counterintuitive trades are ‘half-working’ in a way that I’ve detailed in the latest E-Mini S&P tout. If there’s a payoff for staying awake, it would come in the form of an unexpected ride to new record highs via a trade on which we have risked little.
