Although two recent upthrusts have failed to achieve our 1209.80 rally target, there’s nothing to suggest we should alter our bullish bias. However, because Gold’s feints higher have been so very coy lately, I’d suggest using our most mischief-resistant tactic to get aboard: the ‘counterintuitive’ entry. Currently, that would imply making 1200.10 (see inset) the point ‘A’ low of a potentially tradable pattern. One further suggestion: If point ‘C’ dips below ‘A’, use the pattern anyway. Yes, I’m aware that, strictly speaking, it would no longer be an uptrend; however, the evidence is growing that we should consider using ‘ersatz’ ABC set-ups in order to stay one or two steps ahead of machine traders that are programmed to look for the obvious. This may prove to be the best possible use of the rABC patterns that enjoyed a brief vogue in the chat room a while back. All of this will be Greek to subscribers who are unfamiliar with the nuances of the Hidden Pivot Method. However, you need only tune to the chat room for timely guidance in real time. I haven’t put this trade on The Scoreboard because it could play out in several ways that are unpredictable. For now, though, I’ve sketched a ‘counterintuitive’ set-up built on rABC to help you visualize this one. My hunch is that the trade will work best if ‘C’ is only slightly lower — i.e., $1.20 or less — than ‘A’. If so, to trade this set-up you need only be ready to pull the trigger on a buy-stop order if the futures trampoline after running stops below ‘A’. _______ UPDATE (Jan 17, 10:02 a.m. EST): We were a step behind the trade, since it would have triggered ‘counterintuitively’ on Monday at 6 a.m. using C=1201.00 (i.e., just 0.90 above A). The rally has slightly overshot a Hidden Pivot resistance at 1217.7 (A=1177.00), but not yet by enough for us to infer that another upthrust is likely today.
