It’s late Monday night and April Gold has stolen up on the 1237.70 ‘external’ peak (see inset) that I wrote here yesterday was crucial to the short- to intermediate-term picture. The so-far high tonight has precisely tied the peak, but it would be hard to imagine the futures coming this far without mustering the tiny push it would take to get past it. That would refresh the bullish energy of the daily chart, shifting our attention to election night’s watershed peak at 1343.90. First things first, though: Assuming buyers can get past the 1238.80 ‘secondary pivot’ of the pattern shown, a two-day close above it would put the 1257.10 target solidly in play over the near term. As always, an easy move through so clear a Hidden Pivot resistance would be telegraphing a continuation of the trend. _______ UPDATE (Feb 7, 7:46 p.m. EST): Another extremely uneventful day, checked by the 1237.70 resistance drum-rolled above. The so-far shallow retracement from within three ticks of that number suggests bulls are mustering their courage for a push past it. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 10:02 p.m.): Buyers easily cracked the 1237.70 resistance, implying the trend is likely to continue to at least the 1255.60 target shown. We haven’t used the secondary pivot (p2) much to set up ‘mechanical’ buying opportunities, but let’s give it a try here, stop 1231.30. If the $600 initial risk makes you squeamish, you can substitute either a ‘counterintuitive’ set-up using A=1232.30, or ‘camouflage’. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 10:03 a.m.): The futures took an $8 bounce from 1237.70 before relapsing to the pink line. If you caught the initial trade with a bid placed just above the line, you had a great opportunity to take a partial profit and can manage the trade as you please from this point forward. If you missed buying the first time around, I would not recommend a sloppy seconds entry on this relapse. The target remains valid nonetheless. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 7:46 p.m.): The nasty slide from this morning’s bull-trap peak is targeted on 1222.80, using this corrective pattern on the 60-minute chart: a=1246.20 (2/9, 10:00 a.m.); b=1231.70. If the Hidden Pivot evinces no bounce, look for another attempt near the low at 1208.30 recorded last Friday. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 11:45 p.m.): Gold has bounced $14 so far today off a 1222.60 low that missed the target given above by two ticks. The intraday high is 1236.40, but buyers will need to push above 1237.30 today to get something going with the potential to spill into next week.
