April Gold was in a moderate sell-off in after-hours trading Tuesday night after having achieved the 1265.70 rally target show. Night owls might enjoy success bottom-fishing at the 1241.70 corrective target of a lesser pattern (15-minute, a=1259.30 at 12:30 p.m. EST), using a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. If that Hidden Pivot fails to reverse the downtrend, expect further slippage to the 1236.10 downside target of yet another pattern (20-minute, a=1264.90 on 2/27 at 11:40 a.m.; b= 1248.20 on 2/28 at 1:40 p.m.). It looks very promising for catching a swing low precisely. You could also get short to that number if and when 1244.50 has been penetrated to the downside by perhaps 1.20-1.50. At a more subjective level, I should say that gold’s rallies have been disappointing in the way that we might expect if bullion were still in a bear market. Gold (and silver) have rallied enough to keep bulls engaged and hopeful, but little more. It often feels like investors are being strung along by upthrusts that, while encouraging, are unable to get legs. I discussed this with Cory Fleck this morning in my daily interview with Korelin Economic Report. To access the recording, click here. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 10:56 p.m. EST): The futures have bounced $14 so far after bottoming $1.10 from the 1236.10 target given above. The trouble is, the bounce narrowly failed to surpass the ‘external’ peak I’ve labeled at 1252.80 (see inset, a new chart). The move is bullishly impulsive, to be sure, just not bullish enough so far for a presumption of significantly higher prices. To get things rolling, buyer will need to close this vehicle above the 1253.90 midpoint pivot, or trade through it by at least $3-$4 intraday. Thereupon, the 1270.60 target would become my minimum upside objective for the near term.
