GDX – Gold Miners ETF (Last:24.91)

Bulls tripped a theoretical buy signal last week at 23.43 that is tied to a target at 37.97. If GDX eventually gets there, that would represent a 64% gain from these levels. This is by no means a likelihood at the moment, only a technical observation rooted in mechanical evidence. More immediately, a lesser rally target at 24.46 (see inset) would need to be reached, and then surpassed, to suggest there is ample buying power below the surface to propel GDX into the $30s. The stock was a ‘mechanical’ buy last week on the pullback to the green line, a fact that I noted in the chat room at the time. If it doesn’t oblige us by pulling back, it could still be bought ‘mechanically’ on a pullback to p, the red line. I would not recommend this, however, unless the retracement comes from 23.60 or higher. A stop-loss at 22.72 would be required. _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 11:29 p.m.): GDX has pulled back sharply after having missed the 24.46 target by 21 cents. The target remains viable in theory, but a print beneath 22.55 today or tomorrow would damage the short-term-bullish case that still obtains. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 10:12 p.m.): Friday’s low at 22.78 has left the bullish pattern noted above intact. Use a slightly altered, 24.42 target and this pattern to trade the move on the 60-minute chart: A=22.61 (1/19); B= 24.25.  A moderately enticing ‘counterintuitive’ trade was triggered Friday, but a strong opening on Monday would put it out of reach. ______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 8:58 p.m.): An early-morning rally died precisely at the 23.60 midpoint pivot of the pattern noted above. If and when GDX gets decisively past it, the 24.42 target will become an odds-on bet.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 10:33 p.m.): After leaping sharply higher on the opening, GDX stalled precisely at the 24.42 Hidden Pivot resistance noted above. Buyers looked poised to push above it, but we’ll wait and see what the day brings. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 6:10 p.m.): GDX feinted marginally higher on Friday. We should know soon whether this means buyers are energized and not about to cede any ground, or whether instead the futures are being set up for a bearish island-gap reversal. _______ UPDATE (Feb 6, 10:09 p.m.): Buyers blew past the 25.13 target shown with such ease that a further push past November’s peaks near $26 seems likely. Were that to occur, it would create the move powerful impulse leg we’ve seen on this vehicle’s daily chart since summer. Let’s see how things go.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 10:14 p.m.): ‘Camouflage’ entry set-ups don’t come much subtler than the one created by this morning’s gap-up opening bar (see inset, a new chart). I’m a step behind the opportunity with this observation, but it will be interesting nevertheless to see how the pattern performs. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 8:07 p.m.): The bullish significance of Wednesday’s push past the Nov 9 peak at 25.70 was not even slightly affected by today’s weakness; it merely shifts the potential point A low of the next rally pattern lower. Look for ‘counterintuitive’ set-ups from either A=24.29, or A=23.45. Both are labeled in the chart, a new one.