Wednesday’s pummeling generated a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart — the first time this has occurred since mid-November. If the down-leg shown continues without interruption, exceeding yet another ‘external’ low at 1182.60 that I’ve labeled, it would deepen gold’s malaise. Even so, we’ll remain open-minded to the possibility of ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal that would come from a rally begun fro just above 1182.60. I’d be skeptical of its chances to reach the ‘D’ of the a-borning rally pattern, but we could still make a few bucks and enjoy a bullish ride, however fleeting. ______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 6:41 p.m.): Round-number support at 1200.00 is a mighty slender reed for bulls to lean on. Instead, I would make preparations for a fall to at least 1156.60, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (Mar 12, 7:42 p.m. EDT): Keep the 1156.50 downside target flagged above well in mind as a minimum downside objective for the next several weeks, but more immediately we can give bulls the benefit of the doubt, since buyers generated a weak impulse leg with Friday’s moderate rally. Take encouragement if it exceeds two or more of the labeled peaks Sunday night or Monday, since that would generate a promising impulse leg on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 8:48 p.m.): There was little to encourage, since today’s upward blip exceeded only the lowermost of the four peaks shown in the chart before dropping back. Nevertheless, if buyers can pop this vehicle decisively above 1207.30 today, I’d make it an odds-on shot to hit 1213.60 over the near term.
