I’d raised the prospect last week of placing a ‘mechanical’ bid at the green line (see inset) if GLD pulled back to it, but my appetite for risk has diminished because of how hard this vehicle has gotten sold down. This generated a bearish impulse leg on Friday. Under the circumstances, if we are to do any buying, I’d prefer that it be on a second leg down, assuming there is one. Otherwise, buyers will need to push above 119.84 within the next day or two to imply that they’re game for more. If GLD slips below 115.71, that would probably generate enough downforce to test support near 113._______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 7:05 p.m. EST): Yikes! This morning’s gap-down opening crashed several prior ‘structural’ supports, all but ensuring more slippage toward 113. _______ UPDATE (Mar 10, 12:19 a.m.): ‘Yikes!” for sure. GLD’s collapse has unfolded more quickly than I might have imagined, and further slippages into the $13s now looks like a done deal. To be more precise, I now expect the stock to hit the 113.77 Hidden Pivot target shown (see inset, a new chart) on Friday. Any lower would make a test of late January’s low at 112.81 very likely. ________ UPDATE (Mar 12, 8:08 p.m. EDT): GLD reversed on Friday from a low at 114.13 that was 40 cents above my target. Now, however, I’ll need to see a print exceeding 115.36 to be convinced this move is going somewhere. Above 117.93, I’d become a true believer, at least for the time being. _______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 8:35 p.m.): Rallies have gone nowhere, so the 113.77 minimum downside target and the analysis above still obtain. ________ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:21 p.m.): GLD has rallied from a 114.02 low that missed the downside target flagged above by 25 cents. My next downside target, also my minimum objective for the next selloff, is 111.33. This number will remain viable unless the stock can climb above 120.40 first. ______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 9:59 p.m.): The two-day rally has so far failed to reach the 117.93 midpoint resistance of a pattern projecting to as high as 121.72 over the near term (i.e., two weeks). If it pushes past that number as soon as Monday I’ll be back in the bullish camp, although not with any great enthusiasm. If the stall lasts a day or two longer, however, bulls will have their hands full trying for lift. _______ UPDATE (Mar 19, 9:56 p.m.): So far, the futures have been unable to reach the 117.93 midpoint pivot, let alone surpass it. Even so, the shallow correction so far suggests buyers are in charge.
