The most recent forecast got the downtrend right, but also an intraday low that came within two points of the 2326.50 target I’d flagged the night before. I’d suggested bottom-fishing there because it stood to be easier than staying short for the ride south. This proved to be the case, since the decline was punctuated by two gratuitous rallies that would have made for a stressful day. Before the futures made their final low at 2324.00, they took a five-point bounce from 2326.00 — two ticks below my target — that could have been worth as much as $250 per contract to anyone who followed my guidance. At that time, in the chat room, I advised subscribers to take the money and run, since it would have been risky to hold a long position over the three-day weekend. Looking just ahead, because the bearish abc pattern that produced the 2326.50 target was as clear and clean as they come, we should infer from the slight overshoot that still lower prices are coming. We shall see, but in the meantime I’ll have no trade recommendation for this vehicle ahead of Monday’s opening. _______ UPDATE (Apr 16, 9:20 p.m. ET): Because the futures slightly exceeded our 2326.50 target on Thursday, we should presume that still lower prices are coming. If this is correct, they should fall to the 2304.25 target shown once p2=2321.94 has been decisively breached.
