Friday’s nasty reversal was disappointing, to say the least, especially since the rally peaked less than $3 shy of a 1275.80 Hidden Pivot target we’d been using for the last week to stay on the right side of a wishy-washy uptrend. However, if you back up to consider an even bigger picture — one with a slightly higher target at 1279.80 — you can see that Friday’s selloff did no technical damage to a still-bullish chart. Moreover, the spike through the 1238.90 midpoint resistance on March 21 was so ferocious that there should be little doubt 1279.80 will be reached. What happens after that is more important, since an easy push past that number, especially within a day of when it is first touched, would be signaling more upside to come. Alternatively, a reversal from the target that subsequently exceeds two prior lows on this chart would imply bulls are spent, probably for 2-3 weeks or more. _______ UPDATE (Apr 10, 7:56 p.m. ET): Today’s gratuitous ups and downs left my outlook unchanged. _______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 11:34 p.m.): In after-hours trading, the June contract has exceeded the 1279.80 Hidden Pivot by $2 so far. That’s not quite enough to imply bulls are ready to power significantly higher without a rest. Regardless, if they can close the futures above the pivot for two consecutive days, or trade more than 3.50 above it intraday, they will be in good position to steamroller sellers ahead of Good Friday.
