We usually initiate ‘counterintuitive’ trades based on intraday price action, but I’ll break with precedent to offer a promising gambit in TLT for Monday morning. This ‘mechanical’ trade is only for experienced traders who understand the tactic and can improvise on-the-fly, but I would encourage novices to track the results for whatever insights they may yield. Specifically, I am recommending a buy-stop entry at X, but only if price action closely matches what I’ve sketched hypothetically. Be sure to cover half of your position if p is reached, and another 25% at D. You should be able to determine Sunday night whether the trade will pan out, since a big move in T-Bond futures either way would negate it. The trade is based on the well-camouflaged A-B impulse leg, which will appear to most other traders as a failed rally because it couldn’t get past the “breakout’ high at 122.27. The leg is very impulsive nonetheless, having gotten past no fewer than one internal and two external peaks. _______ UPDATE (Apr 10, 9:27 a.m. ET): Cancel the trade for now. TLT will open moderately higher without having gotten close enough to the pattern’s point ‘A’ to set up a true ‘counterintuitive’ entry.
