TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:125.50)

We hold a long-term position of 200 shares with a cost basis that has been reduced by profit-taking to 120.36. Although the chart shown allows us to project a move to as high as 128.40, we’ll use just the rightmost section of it to produce a more conservative target at 125.67. However, either interpretation will impose a crucial midpoint resistance on bulls not far above. The first, tied to 125.67, lies at 124.08; the second, tied to 128.40, lies at 124.16. This implies some very heavy supply in the range between those numbers, so we should monitor the action closely if and when TLT gets there. An easy move past this ‘double-trouble’ layer of supply would significantly shorten the odds of a continuation to at least 125.67, and thence 128.40. _______ UPDATE (May 31, 6:44 p.m. ET): If and when TLT gets with 0.05 points of the 125.67 target, short one June 30 127 call for each hundred shares you currently hold. This will turn the position into a covered write. I estimate that the calls will be trading for around 0.90-1.00 at that time, but that’s just a guess. Check back in the chat room for further guidance in real time when the trade gets close.  I will also send out an email alert in real time, so make sure ‘Email Notifications’ on your account dashboard is switched on if you want to stay closely apprised. _______ UPDATE (Jun 2, 12:34 p.m. EDT): TLT has taken a powerful leap this morning, peaking a dime above the 125.67 Hidden Pivot that had served as our minimum price objective in recent days. The calls have traded no lower than 0.90 since TLT got near the target, so we now hold 200 shares with a 120.36 cost basis and are short two Jun 30 127 calls for 0.90 apiece. If the ETF is sitting where it is now when the calls expire, our position gain would be $1208, less commissions. This trade was simple enough that any subscriber could have done it. It was explicitly intended to meet my goal of making Rick’s Picks and the Hidden Pivot Course effectively free to all.