DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:96.20)

It is only on the very long-term charts that we can see that the dollar’s unabated weakness since January has actually been part of a larger, very bullish chart pattern going back six years. In fact, the decline so far, from a 103.82 peak to a recent low at 95.47, has yet to exceed even a single prior low. Moreover, the decline would need to continue all the way to 78.91 to diminish the bullishness of this chart. Another plus for the dollar is that before it began to fall, the January high exceeded an external peak at 102.15 recorded in March 2003, creating a still-viable impulse leg of monthly-chart degree. The foregoing suggests that the long-term-bullish case deserves the benefit of the doubt despite current weakness. I expect the decline to continue well into summer, but if and when it reaches 92, near the May 2016 bottom, we could see the best buying opportunity in more than three years.