Friday’s strong finishing stroke to a generally positive week created the first bullish impulse leg we’ve seen on the hourly chart in more than a month. Under the circumstances, caution is warranted if not necessarily skepticism. Trade with a bullish bias when activity resumes Sunday evening, but don’t expect to get aboard the easy way, since the steep pitch of Friday’s opening bar will have turned more than a few fence -straddlers into fickle fans. The rally would begin to look interesting if and when it exceeds the 1260.00 peak that I’ve labeled. Until then, however, the 1194.40 downside target we’ve been using as a minimum downside target will remain very much in play. _________ UPDATE (Jul 20, 12:06 a.m. ET): Thursday’s rally generated a minor bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Now, if buyers can push this vehicle above June 28’s 1255.70 peak by the close, bulls would have something to feel good about over the weekend._______ UPDATE (Jul 25, 6:15 p.m.): A minor correction on the hourly chart suggests a possible buying opportunity: Bid 1246.00 for a single contract, stop 1245.40. Click here for a visual explanation._______ UPDATE (Jul 26, 8:51 a.m.): Suh-prize suh-prize. Gold looks like crap yet again, having stopped out the bottom-fishing gambit advised above for a $60 loss. The overshoot of the downside target implies more weakness to come, presumably to test lows recorded a week ago near 1235.
