We hold a long-term position of 200 shares with a 120.36 cost basis. TLT was in an uptrend all week but could only muster a single, feeble impulse leg on the hourly chart. The uptrend would need to surpass the 124.65 ‘external’ peak that I’ve labeled in the chart (see inset) to suggest that bulls might be turning things around. The sooner this occurs — by Tuesday’s close, perhaps –the more encouraged we should be. Alternatively, if the ETF heads lower, expect it to fall to at least 122.03 in search of traction. _______ UPDATE (Aug 31, 8:12 a.m. EDT): It is troubling that Tuesday’s fleeting upthrust to a new recovery high failed by a few ticks to surpass June 26’s 128.57 peak (click here for chart). This suggests that buyers may be nearing exhaustion, at least for the near term. Even so, we’ll continue to use p2=129.08 as a minimum upside target, and 131.24 if the lower number is easily exceeded. ________ UPDATE (Sep 6, 6:36 p.m.): Today’s thrust to a fleeting peak at 129.00 came close enough to the 129.08 target flagged above to consider the target fulfilled. It would have been a great place to do a covered-write against our stock position, but because I did not suggest this, we’ll cross our fingers and look for a second chance at 131.24. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 6:08 p.m.): If and when TLT hits 131.10, short two Sep 29 131 calls and buy two Sep 29 128.00 puts. To get the best possible prices, shoot for midway between the bid and offer. _______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 1:43 p.m. EDT): I’ve just posted a bottom-fishing trade in this vehicle to The Scoreboard. Here’s the chart on which the recommendation is based: http://bit.ly/2wn1FDT The order is good through Wednesday but subject to change if T-Bonds get whacked overnight. _______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 10:48 p.m.): Try this chart and trade, without the rickism, by clicking here. I’ve removed the trade from the Scoreboard because I tired of correcting the error every place it appeared.________ UPDATE (Sep 15, 12:24 a.m.): Cancel the trade. We’ll wait for a better opportunity.
