VXX – S&P VIX Short-Term (Last:13.29)

We hold four July 28 12 calls for 0.34 apiece [Note  They went out worthless, producing a $132 loss.], having acquired them when VXX fell to a targeted all-time low at 11.72 earlier in the week. VXX, an equity vehicle created to facilitate betting on volatility swings in the S&P 500, has now fallen to within a few ticks of an alternative target at 11.27. However, the drop from the first target to the second occurred so quickly that I am no longer advising the purchase of more calls. Indeed, if VXX is going to pop, it’s going to happen now, from precisely this level, presumably reviving our calls with a vengeance. If there’s no bounce, however, the chart (see inset) shows yet another bear market target at 10.24 that would become our new, minimum downside objective. If it were to be achieved, the implication is that the S&Ps and other stock averages would be trading quite a bit higher than current levels.________UPDATE (Jul 24, 5:16 p.m. EDT): Sellers crushed the 11.27 ‘hidden’ support, pushing this vehicle below 11 for the first time ever. The clear implication is that it is now headed down to 10.24. ________ UPDATE (Jul 27, 5:54 p.m.): Today’s Whoopee Cushion bounce did not change my outlook. Let’s see how things go. ________UPDATE (Aug 7, 3:49 p.m.): Unprecedented weakness continues to dominate. Here’s a new chart that shows this while reaffirming the 10.24 target. ________ UPDATE (Aug 8, 9:46 p.m.): VXX exploded off this morning’s lows, but the rally will need to surpass July 28’s after-hours peak at 11.64 to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. At press time they seemed well on-track to achieve this Tuesday night or early Wednesday. _______ UPDATE (Aug 10, 7:38 p.m.): Today’s surge did not negate the 10.24 target — that would take a print exceeding 14.16 — but it did lengthen the odds that it will be reached._______ UPDATE (Aug 14, 7:17 a.m.): Last week’s hysterical spike to 14.07 failed by a dime to achieve anything of technical significance, so we’re back to the 10.24 target. The same guidance still obtains: We will never, ever chase this rabid badger; moreover, we will never buy call options to bottom-fish unless it is bottoming at a Hidden Pivot ‘p’ or ‘d’ correction target.