Gold’s slight breach of the 1288.00 target shown is encouraging, but the bullishness of this is merely, well, slight. The overshoot is not sufficient for us to infer that a glorious rally lies just ahead, but if and when the next upthrust comes, look for it to hit 1300.70, an important midpoint resistance (daily chart, A=1074.10 on 12/30/15). It would take more than that, however — specifically, a print exceeding 1307.00 — to refresh the bullish energy of the daily chart; and still more — i.e., a push above the election night high, 1353.00 — to put gold back on the warpath. ________ UPDATE (Aug 10, 6:56 p.m. EDT): The futures ended the day slightly shy of the very important Hidden Pivot resistance at 1300.70 noted above (click here for chart). A decisive push past it, or two consecutive weekly closes above it, would put a 1461.60 rally target well in play. Buyers have failed twice this year to blast through 1300.70 in April and June. Let’s see if the third try proves to be the charm. ________ UPDATE (Aug 13, 6:05 p.m.): No change. The 1300.70 resistance remains critical to my outlook for gold over the near-to-intermediate term. _______ UPDATE (Aug 14, 5:56 p.m.): If the futures slip beneath the 1285.90 midpoint Hidden Pivot support that contained today’s selling, look more more downside to 1280.30, a minor retracement target that you could bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks (60-min, a=1295.30 on 8/14 at midnight). _______UPDATE (Aug 15, 8:14 a.m.): For the third time since April, December Gold has receded from the 1300.70 Hidden Pivot resistance without having penetrated it decisively. Rinse and repeat. This is neither particularly bullish nor bearish, but it does affirm my earlier advice to tune out gold until it does something worthy of our attention.
