DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:228.73)

I’d suggested shorting 227.88 but will now recommend that you attempt it at the 228.44 target shown. This is two cents higher than the target given here previously, which was slightly miscalculated. You should focus on near-the-money put options that expire in five to twelve days, since we expect them to go in-the-black more or less instantly when DIA reverses as expected from the 228.44 target.  This is not certain, of course, but the bet looks very appealing to me. _______ UPDATE (Oct 10, 8:22 a.m.): The 228.44 target came within a penny of nailing today’s so-far high, which came on an opening-bar spike. DIA has since dropped to 227.64, allowing an easy and obvious profit-taking opportunity. What have you done? Your reports will be appreciated, since I’ll need to determine what sort of tracking position to establish in order to provide further guidance._______ UPDATE (Oct 10, 6:54 p.m.): Since subscriber reports have been varied, I’ll make a one-size-fits-all recommendation: Stop yourself out of any puts you hold if they trade for 25% less than you paid for them. The order is good through Wednesday, since I do NOT want to get stopped out for mere reasons of time decay with DIA trading below the 228.43 target. ______ UPDATE (Oct 11, 4:56 p.m.): DIA finished slightly above the target, implying that any put positions held at the close remain tied to a stop-loss within your comfort zone. If you’re planning to stick it out to the last painful uptick, use the 228.78 target shown to calibrate your stop. ________ UPDATE (Oct 12, 9:34  p.m.): DIA topped Thursday at 228.81, three ticks above the “max” rally target given above. If you held onto some puts, tie them to a 228.82 stop-loss and report your position in the chat room so that I can determine whether to revise the tracking position._______ UPDATE (Oct 14): If you took home any puts over the weekend, let go of them on Monday if stocks are sideways to higher after the first hour. Please report any action taken in the chat room so that I can update my guidance accordingly.