Although I remain long-term bullish on the dollar, I’ve been unimpressed with the quality of the rally that has unfolded over the last three weeks. Although DXY has risen by 2.6% over that time, the so-far high at 95.15 failed by nine cents to achieve a clear target at 95.24 that I’d aired here. It also failed to exceed an ‘external’ peak at 95.15 recorded on July 20. Taken together, these signs suggest that bulls may be too tired or timid at the moment to drive the dollar into a convincing rally. Accordingly, I’ll raise the bar somewhat just to be doubly sure buyers mean it on the next upthrust, if and when it comes. Specifically, I’ll suggest holding your enthusiasm in check until such time as DXY exceeds the 96.51 ‘external’ peak shown. _______ UPDATE (Nov 10): Two weeks of tedious head-butting narrowly failed to get DXY past the 95.24 pivot noted above. We’ll avert our eyes for now, lest we be lulled into coma as DXY pulls back to get some running room.
