The 1254.10 downside target we’ve been using to stay steadfastly on the right side of the trend remains viable and should be used as a minimum downside projection for now. Unfortunately for bulls, when December Gold peaked last week at 1285.10, it just missed surpassing an ‘external’ peak on the daily chart recorded nine days earlier. This would have generated a mildly bullish impulse leg. Alas, it was not to be, and the clear implication is that downtrend will continue. Because of gold’s recalcitrant behavior, we should also raise the bar somewhat for turning bullish — to 1293.00, a tick above an external peak recorded Oct 20 on the way down. If the futures instead fall to the target, you can bottom-fish there with a bid at 1254.20, stop 1253.80. _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 6:01 p.m.): A prior peak at 1286.20 is the lowest and most immediate benchmark I can suggest for determining whether bulls are serious. Click here for the chart to see this moderately important hurdle in perspective.
