BTC – Bitcoin (USDT) (Last:15474)

We’ve been using 12714 as a minimum upside target, but composite charts available at Kitco leave room for a move to as high as 14711 over the next 3-5 weeks.  Kitco’s data also allow for a possible stall at 12391, so take heed if you trade this vehicle.  I will be making specific trading recommendations once I determine whose charts are the most accurate for purposes of forecasting swing highs and lows.  Here’s a gambit you can paper-trade for now:  Bid 10615, stop 10011, and hold the position for a 12391 objective. My gut feeling is that we won’t have definitive, tradable charts until the impending CME bitcoin futures contract has established a little price history. _______ UPDATE (5:46 p.m.): The order filled and went live as a ‘paper-trade’ about an hour ago.  Switch to a trailing stop of $350 if and when the rally hits p2=$11,498. ________UPDATE (9:41 p.m.): BTC has traded as high as 11560, activating the 350-point stop. To avoid getting popped out of a good trade too easily, and assuming you are still in it, I’ll now recommend substituting a break-even stop at 10615 for the trailing stop. This is not a number pulled out of thin air, for in fact it lies just beneath the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the rally pattern projecting to 12714. _______ UPDATE (Dec 4, 10:27 a.m.): Raise the stop-loss to 10717. [As of around 6:00 p.m., nothing had changed. Bitcoinmania has gone temporarily flat, but you should hold to the stop-loss and the 12714 target in any event.] _______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 10:19 a.m.): Raise the stop-loss to 11362, still held o-c-o with an order to close out the position at 12714. _______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 10:40 p.m.): Bitcoin is on a tear tonight, having traded as high as $12,200. Raise the stop-loss to 11629, o-c-o with an order to close out the position at 12714. We’ve been using that target since BTC was trading in the low $9000s a week ago. (Note: For the record, there’s an alternative target at 12850, but we won’t be greedy.)  _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 9:13 a.m.) Bitcoin has hit a so-far high this morning of 12825, allowing an exit from the position initiated four days ago for a theoretical profit of $2099. It has since fallen $546 to a 12273 low. We’ll back away for now while we wait for a new opportunity to develop. _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 8:52 p.m.): The wack-jobs are out in force, driving this rally with some of the wildest spasms any of us has ever witnessed. The rabid swings have turned out to be fairly predictable, however, so let me offer my latest:  With BTC currently trading 13859 off a record high at 14055 recorded just an hour ago, I am projecting 14649 on the next pop — perhaps overnight. If BTC pulls back to 13517 first, you can buy there, stop 13139. _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 9:40 p.m.): Wow. BTC swooned in the blink of any eye to 13098, stopping out our ‘paper’ position for a loss of about $400. Realize that the little monster dove 955 points just to take out stops beneath a low at 13140 recorded earlier this evening.  It has since rocketed back up to 13800. After two trades, we’re still up $1700 in ‘paper’ profits. This is going to be fun! _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 11:35 p.m.): Before I retire for the night, let me reiterate the 14711 target given above. It remains viable and should be used as a minimum upside projection from a current level of around 13850.
_______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 9:20 a.m.): Kitco’s composite BTC seems to be “off” by about $20 relative to significant HP reversal points. This morning, for instance, with a 14711 target, it dove $1000 after hitting 14689. This has happened several times. What amazes is how quickly it retraces and then runs up to the next target. These corrections should take days, at least, but they are taking mere hours or less. FYI, the current target is 15103. _______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 11:06 a.m.): These targets should be taking weeks to achieve, not hours. And now, with 15103 just buried, the highest target I can project using the daily chart is…18436.