We can continue to use 2680.50 as a minimum upside target for the near term, but if it is exceeded on a closing basis or by more than 3.50 points intraday, the Hidden Pivot shown at 2695.50 will be well in play. Notice that the first time buyers encountered the 2650.25 midpoint pivot on the follow-through (C-D) leg, they blew past it on a gap. That considerably shortened the odds of a continuation up to 2695.50. I estimate that it has an 85% chance of being reached, presumably within the next 3-5 trading days. The rally yielded an absolutely unbeatable ‘mechanical’ entry opportunity on last week’s pullback to the green line, but if you attempt it belatedly at the red line, you should limit your entry tactic to a ‘camouflage’ set-up. _______ UPDATE (Dec 14, 4:16 p.m.): Today’s moderate sell-off would turn ever-so-slightly menacing if it exceeds the 2649.25 low that I’ve labeled in this chart. It would take a print below 2605.00, however, to invalidate the 2695.50 target. _______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 8:53 p.m.): The gratuitous swoon that ended the week will have no bearing on the analysis above, other than to delay a move-to-target by a day or two._______ UPDATE (Dec 18, 8:50 a.m.): The March-contract (ESH18) equivalent to the 2695.50 target given for the December futures is 2698.00, and it is confirmed by some precise hits at p=2652.13 (60-min, A= 2569.00 on 11/19). But you’ll need to leave room for a run-up to as high as 2710.00 for this rally to max out, since the ‘marquee’ A used to project that target is distinctive enough to look usable. Short 2698.00 with a 2701.25 stop-loss, but do the trade ONLY IF YOU USED THE ORIGINAL, 2695.50 target for the December contract to stay long for at least part of the ride. Shorting at 2710.50 will be okay for all, very tightly stopped, but you can also interpolate using SPY puts.
