Bulls’ failure this week to achieve the 1305.00 Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart (click on inset) is not exactly a sign of robust health. Actually, the good guys needed to have done somewhat better than that, surpassing the 1312.70 peak from October 16, to show their seriousness. Instead, they died well shy of it; and, to make matters worse, relapsed on Wednesday to a new weekly low. The technical damage would begin to look serious if sellers push the February contract beneath 1278.50, the point ‘C’ low of the 1305.00 rally pattern. We’ve learned by now — all too well — that gold’s corrections are designed to bring bulls to the threshold of despair. By my lights, that would require a dip beneath mid-October’s 1267.00 low. We’d be feeling bullion’s pain by then, presumably just ahead of the next not-quite-satisfying rally. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 5:59 p.m.): Gold mildly tanked today as expected. Now, if the futures cannot hold support at p2=1272.70, the February contract will be bound for at least 1258.70. Click here to see it in a chart. You can bottom-fish there with as tight as stop-loss as you can abide. _______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 9:30 a.m.): The so-far small breach of the 1258.70 target means gold is headed even lower — presumably to 1237.40. Click here to see the chart. If you bottom-fished per my instruction, please report it in the chat room so that I can score the loss. _______ UPDATE (Dec 10, 5:30 p.m.): You can bottom-fish the 1237.40 target with a 1237.60 bid, stop 1236.50. I’m suggesting only a single contract for this trade, since we are after all attempting to catch a falling piano.
