JYH18 – March Yen (Last:0.90680)

Today’s chart shows a yen ‘short’ that triggered last week on the run-up to the green line (0.89989). The implication is that the December 2017 contract is about to fall to at least 0.86383.  A decisive breach of that number, a ‘Hidden Pivot’ support, would put a 0.79170 downside target in play over the long term. The corresponding numbers for the March 2018 contract are: 0.87520 (minimum downside, following a short at 0.90650); and a maximum 0.81260 if 0.87520 is decisively breached.  Alternatively, if the yen bear market begun in August 2016 is about to end, we should see a strong bounce precisely from 0.87520 (basis March); or from 0.86383 (basis December continuous weekly). _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 10:57 p.m. EST): Shifting to the March contract, the tracking position is showing a paper profit of about $1160 (see inset). Do nothing further for now, but maintain the stop-loss at 0.93600. _______ UPDATE (Jan 16, 11:00 p.m.): I’ve run out of patience and will recommend scratching the trade with the March futures currently trading for around 0.90680.