Wednesday’s surge past a ‘secondary pivot’ at 1351.80 was so decisive that there should be little doubt as to whether February Gold will achieve the 1389.60 target that has guided us confidently for more than a month. Of greater importance is whether buyers can push past the target; for if they do so, and easily, it would suggest that the bull run begun in the final days of 2016 is capable of achieving much higher prices. This would become even more likely if the current surge, without pulling back discernibly on the daily chart, surpasses the 1397.90 peak recorded four months earlier. _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 5:07 p.m. EST): Buyers look spent, at least for the moment, but we’ll treat a pullback to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1314.00, as a mechanical buying opportunity. Since the implied entry risk would be a whopping $2520 per contract if we deploy the required 1288.80 stop-loss, we’ll instead use a mechanical trigger to generate a ‘camouflage’ entry signal. Ideally, this would lower the initial risk to perhaps $40-$120 per contract. If you’re interested in seeing how this is done, tune to the chat room when March Gold gets within $5 of the target. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 5:05 p.m.): The 1344.50 pivot shown here looks enticing for tightly stopped bottom-fishing. Let’s bid there for a single contract, stop 1343.90, day order. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:27 a.m.): Sellers have driven the futures as low as 1339.50, stopping out our bottom-fishing trade for a small loss of around $60. The breach of the 1344.50 pivot implies more weakness over the near term to at least 1333.00._______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 8:25 p.m.): Just a few more inches to go before 1333.00 is hit. Let’s see if it holds. I’m not going to suggest bottom-fishing there because there are some marginally lower lows from a week ago that are likely to entice the futures lower if 1333.00 gives way. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 9:15 p.m.): The intraday low at 1332.80 exceeded the target given above by a technically insignificant two ticks, but the bounce-and-relapse trap that followed was not encouraging. If bulls are ready to retake the offensive, they’ll signal it on Wednesday with a thrust exceeding 1348.20. Otherwise, look for more slippage into the 1320s.
