Treasury rates and the price of crude oil have broken above key Hidden Pivot resistance points this week, a technical event whose significance is explained in the relevant ‘touts’ below. Although I have serious doubts that the inflationary spiral economists have been breathlessly predicting for the last 25 years is coming, I’d have to concede that the pace of economic growth in the U.S. and elsewhere seems likely to quicken. In any event, my long-term skepticism toward the ‘supply-side’ story that has driven energy’s advance has given way to a ‘demand-side’ story that would necessarily include a strong resurgence in China’s manufacturing output. Commodities would participate in such a resurgence as well, so look for more technical coverage on this page as the trend progresses.
Treasury Rates and Crude Break Out
- January 12, 2018, 6:51 am
Barron’s…What Inflation Could Mean for the Market..(head line) …Even a small uptick in inflation in 2018 could catch markets off-guard. How to prepare….ByAvi Salzman December 30, 2017
Sum of Vix Closes Under chart is Parabolic since 1990.
COT (commercials) are massive long ED market, lower world wide interest rates ahead.
This is also seen in the 2nd chart NET COT build that all others SPEC, Dealers are Short ED.
Lower world wide rates are ahead.
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In 1979/80 inflation was in place and GC was at an all time high.
In 2012/13 deflation was in place and GC was at an all time high.
—We think in terms one is needed to apply support for another, that most and every thing is connected. True.
….’Risk’ makes one think no such process really exist and that ‘all things are independent’ and really totally alone in behavior towards pricing.
Have a great week end Rick.