Is That a Black Swan Gliding Our Way?

Anyone following the markets closely on Thursday risked falling into a trance (see chart inset). Buyers and sellers threw sissy-boy punches all day long, effecting price action so listless and dithering that it’s difficult to imagine Friday bringing a discernible change.  In short, it’s just the kind of lull Mr. Market creates in order to set up a Sunday evening surprise — what I referred to the other day as a ‘Pearl Harbor attack.’  Yeah, I know: An important point that Nassim Taleb made in his 2007 best-seller The Black Swan is that, by definition, such events cannot be anticipated or described in advance.  Even so, hope springs eternal that Wall Street’s best and brightest will at some point get the crap kicked out of them, the better to start the cycle anew with chastened markets that might bend more easily toward rationality if not necessarily honesty.

  • none March 16, 2018, 5:24 am

    2005/06 People lined up on the streets overnight for the right to enter a lottery to buy a Florida condo.

    A week later:

    No lines.

    Vanished.

    There was no trigger or event.

    Have a great weekend Rick.

  • gary leibowitz March 15, 2018, 9:07 pm

    FYI, I see a rolling cascading drop starting tomorrow, gaining speed by Friday and finishing first leg down by Monday. My first option bet this year has been made late in session.

    %%%%%%

    Nice to see how closely we agree on timing, Gary. I’m also pleased that you evidently have been following my forecasts and therefore finally understand how I, an inveterate permabear, have been getting this nine-year-old bull technically right despite my glass-is-half-full…of-hemlock point of view. Isn’t it better to get one’s bullish predictions from a case-hardened bear like me than from some lunatic talking-head bull-market shill on MSNBC?
    RA