DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:90.21)

The bullish case has dimmed somewhat over the last few days, since DXY has begun to roll down without having exceeded the ‘external’ peak at 91.00 that I’ve labeled in the chart.  The intraday charts are another story and remain bullish, but a push above 91.00 would have made the bullish story far more compelling. On the 20-minute chart, DXY need only rally above 89.89 to somewhat revive the dollar’s spirits. In any event, and as always, we’ll look for the upturn on charts of smaller degree before we wax bullish again._______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 6:33 p.m. EST): The dollar got crushed after traders reconsidered their earlier reaction to a CPI number that was worse than had been expected. Now, if DXY falls beneath the Jan 26 low at 88.44, it would put an 86.27 target in play. _______ UPDATE (Feb 18, 5:07 p.m.): The marginal new low at 88.25 recorded Friday was just 0.04 beneath my original target at 88.29 and will have no significant impact on the dollar’s bullish prospects as described above. However, if DXY were to close beneath 88.29 for two consecutive days, that would suggest another bout of weakness is coming. Any rally will be just pussyfooting, though, unless this vehicle can pop above the 91.00 peak labeled in the chart. _______  UPDATE (March 4, 5:08 p.m.):  The Dollar Index has traded as high as 90.93 — close to my benchmark, but no cigar.  However, that peak generated a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, raising the odds that the next push will exceed the bullish trigger point at 91.00.  ________ UPDATE (March 14, 12:13 a.m. EDT): Today’s weakness broke a key Hidden Pivot support at p=89.68. The implication is that DXY will now fall to at least 88.99, the ‘D’ target associated with that  number. Click here for a fresh chart. ________ UPDATE (March 18, 5:08 p.m.):  Here’s yet another chart to add to the humdrum. If the rally exceeds 90.48 decisively, it would turn the short-term chart bullish.