Although tracking gold for the many Rick’s Picks subscribers who are in it for the long haul has been tedious in recent years, don’t worry about my being asleep at the wheel when bullion someday turns higher for real. It could happen with a powerful lurch; or, more likely in my view, a soft launch that breaks free of gravity so gradually that even gold bugs won’t know it is happening. We’ve been encouraged by false starts so many times since gold topped in 2011 just above $1900 that many are bound to be skeptical when a true bull market finally emerges, as it eventually will.
For all we know it could happen next week, although the odds are against it. Still, all we need do to accurately gauge bulls’ mettle is to observe how they interact with Hidden Pivot levels on the lesser charts. Currently our short-term benchmarks lie at 1331.90 and 1350.50 — respectively, the midpoint pivot and the ‘D’ target of the pattern shown. As always, and easy move through either of these ‘hidden’ resistance points would command our attention, since it would signal unusual strength relative to what gold has done in recent months. Stay tuned if precision is important to you. ______ UPDATE (March 15, 6:35 p.m. EDT): Seldom has gold failed to disappoint us in recent months. This time it has pulled back from within an inch of the 1331.90 pivot noted above. Were the futures to punch through it, I would turn ultra-cautiously bullish. The good news is that sellers — other than when there is news helpful to their bullying precious metals lower — are as utterly lacking in conviction as buyers.