Uh-oh. I’d said bond bulls would be in trouble if this vehicle were to pop above 2.57%, and so it has. It tracks interest rates on the Ten-Year Treasury Note, and signs are not good. On Wednesday TNX breached the key threshold mentioned above, putting a possible further move to 3.11% in play. The breach of 2.57%, a ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ resistance, shown as a red line in the chart, would need to be more decisive for me to rate a move to 3.11% as an odds-on bet, but I’d call it a near-certainty if the rally were to go just a tad higher, surpassing the key ‘external’ peak on the weekly chart at 2.615% without taking a breather. We’ll probably know soon what’s coming, but it’s hard to imagine how a U.S. economy so completely dependent on vast excesses of credit will function if this key rate is in fact headed to 3.11% or even higher. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 6:49 p.m.) Rates on the Ten-Year Note are climbing quicker than I’d expected.  They are bound most immediately for the 2.98% target shown, but even slight progress above it would shorten the odds of a continuation to the 3.11 target over the next couple of weeks. _______ UPDATE (March 4, 5:08 p.m.): Last week’s low generated a bearish impulse leg, implying that rates on the Ten-Year will be headed lower over the next few days, if not longer.  If instead DXY moves higher, closing above 28.99 for two consecutive days, we could expect the move to reach a minimum 3.00% within the next 5-7 days.  Here’s a fresh chart that shows it all. _______ UPDATE (March 7, 6:08 p.m.): Rates have in fact trended lower as predicted in the previous update. But there is nothing in the long-term chart that suggests my original 3.11% target will not be reached eventually.  For now, you can use the 2.83% midpoint pivot shown as a minimum downside target for the short-term. It will remain viable as long as TNX doesn’t push above 2.89%.________ UPDATE (March 11, 5:08 p.m.): The downtrend has reversed sharply without having achieved the 2.83% midpoint pivot noted above.  This has shortened the odds that the 2.98% target and the one of greater degree above it at 3.11% will be reached.  Here’s a fresh chart.