DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:238.04)

The 23,225 downside target we’ve been using for the Dow Industrials remains valid.  Its DIA equivalent is 232.03, and we can use it to ‘mechanically’ short DIA if this presumably corrective rally hits x=244.37 (the green line).  My strategy is to sell two May 18 245-248 call spreads for $3 or more, legging into the long 248 calls first. Bid 0.90 for two of them, day order, contingent on DIA trading 242.50 or higher. If DIA falls below 242.50, lower the bid for the calls by 0.05 for each 0.20 decrease in DIA. This means you would be 0.85 bid for the calls with DIA trading around 242.30. These bids are stingy and could turn out to be out-of-range. However, I’d rather have the order go unfilled than pay up even a nickel to get it done. We can adjust on-the-fly if necessary, but I’ll have a better idea of ‘fair value’ for the spread as Monday’s session progresses.  (Note: If your account is enabled for such trades, you can simply ‘mechanically’ short 200 shares of stock at 244.37, stop 248.49.  Please let me know in the chat room if you get onboard this way.) ________ UPDATE (April 30, 10:08 a.m.):  No option trades were reported, since DIA’s gap-up opening put the 248 calls well out of reach. However, a subscriber shorted the stock at 244.37 as had also been suggested, so I am establishing a tracking position of 200 short shares, stop 248.49. Make the stop o-c-o with an order to cover half the position (100 shares) at 240.26. ________ UPDATE (April 30, 12:39 p.m. EDT): Since the DIA short was just 200 shares, I’ll recommend covering half here, at round 243.19 (or lower). Please report any fills.  Set a stop-loss at 244.37 for the remaining 100 shares.  The bid for the 248 calls remains valid for the day._______ UPDATE (2:22 p.m.): Raise your bid to 240.40 for the remaining 100 short shares, day order, o-c-o with a stop-loss at 243.30 . If we can scalp the trade for a $500 gain on the day, why not?  I’m using 243.16, the worst fill reported so far in the chat room, as the price for the 100 shares covered earlier. _______ UPDATE (3:06 p.m.):  Make the 240.4o/243.30 trade noted in my 2:22 update above good through Tuesday.  Subscribers who bought two 248 calls for 0.85 using my guidance should do nothing further for now. We may spread them off if DIA rallies strongly._______ UPDATE (May 1, 1:24 p.m.): The Dow Industrials are getting pummeled today, allowing subscribers to cover the remainder of the short-stock position for 240.30 or better. Any subscriber who followed my explicit guidance would have made at least $407 on the trade, based on the worst fill reported in the chat room, 240.30.  The long 248 calls are another matter, however, since today’s steep dive has reduced them to a longshot bet. They are currently trading for around 0.30, so we’ll hold onto them for now.  In the interest of honest accounting, the $170 loss the calls are likely to produce will be deducted from the $407 win, even though no subscribers reported doing both trades.