The big picture still looks bearish, and that’s why we shouldn’t abandon the 22,251 downside target that has been theoretically in play for the last month or so. More immediately, the modest rally of the last two days promises to deliver a minimum 24,166 (click on thumbnail chart). I’ve suggested remaining open to the possibility that this so-far crappy little rally could turn savage, sending bears into a short-covering tizzy that would make it far more memorable than it deserves to be. _______ UPDATE (April 4, 7:31 p.m. EDT): Going strictly by-the-book, today’s nearly 800-point reversal was just noise, since it failed to exceed even a single prior peak on the daily chart. However, the picture would turn very bullish in a blink if buyers are able to surpass the 24,977 peak shown. A push above the lower peak at 24,446 would be a downpayment but not quite a clincher for bulls. _______ UPDATE (April 5, 6:26 p.m.) Today’s dithering ascent elevated the rally from being mere “noise” to having a perfunctory claim on our attention. Be prepared for even more boredom than you may have experienced so far.
