Tuesday’s steep dive bottomed at 2616.00, just beneath the 2620.75 Hidden Pivot support we’d been using since last week as a minimum downside target. I’d suggested bottom-fishing a single contract there, but the trade would have been stopped out quickly for a theoretical loss of around $63. The futures have since bounced a feeble 21 points, but my hunch is that DaBoyz will try to take them at least somewhat higher overnight in order to squeeze a few extra dollars from bears who don’t know when to sit back and relax. The 2526.50 downside target is in play but not yet an odds-on bet to be achieved, since the penetration of the midpoint pivot (p=2622.50) so far has been merely slight._______ UPDATE (April 25, 8:35 p.m. EDT): A rally to x=2670.50 would trigger a ‘mechanical’ short, but I have no energy for doing so, since it could require holding the position overnight. We’ll look for a way to ‘convert’ the signal to camouflage during regular hours on Friday, but until then I’ll suggest watching from the sidelines. _______UPDATE (April 26, 5:07 p.m.): A few subscribers struggled to stay short from around 2670.50, so I’ll repeat this post from the chat room: “I must re-emphasize that 2670.50 is not a swing point, and shorting there is not the same as shorting at a p or D Hidden Pivot resistance. Under the simple rules of the mechanical trade, we short there knowing the futures can rally all the way up to C (in this case 2718.50) without stopping us out. That implies nearly $2000 of initial risk per contact. Unless you are willing to accept that risk there is no point in shorting there MECHANICALLY. If you want to cut the risk down to size, you should use the mechanical signal to set up a camouflage trade. This means doing the trade on the one-minute chart or lower.”
