There are a bunch of minor, bullish patterns we can use to gauge bulls’ spirits here, but I’ve picked a so-so one to avoid reading the chart too bullishly or bearishly. In the picture shown, the June contract would need to push decisively past p=1355.20, meaning to 1360 or higher intraday; or close for two consecutive days above it, in order to become an odds-on shot to hit D=1374.80. It’s been a while since gold futures attained even such a minor target, let alone exceeded one, so we won’t presume too much. _______ UPDATE (April 18, 9:59 p.m. EDT): Buyers fell just shy of the 1360 benchmark given above, but the 1359.00 high actually achieved was sufficient to generate a ‘mechanical’ bid at X=1344.30, stop 1335.40. Because the initial risk would be $900 per contract, my suggestion is to paper-trade unless you know how to convert the signal to a ‘camouflage’ set-up. Stay close to the chat room for real-time guidance on this. _______ UPDATE (April 19, 7:30 p.m.): I’m rarely a buyer of this vehicle, but in this instance you could attempt it with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks: 1344.50 bid, stop 1344.10. Here’s the picture. ________UPDATE (April 20, 11:15 p.m.): The trade was stopped out for a loss of $40/contract. However, this held bearish implications for the subsequent rally to x=1347.00 (the green line) five hours later. A mechanical short there, stop 1349.60, would have produced a gain of as much as $770 per contract later that morning._______ UPDATE (April 22, 12:44 p.m.): A subscriber took me to task for supposedly spinning a losing trade into a would-be winner. Longtime subscribers will know that Rick’s Picks is a no-spin zone, devoid of shoulda-woulda-coulda trades. I mentioned the short-gold play above — after-the-fact — because it was an excellent teaching example.
