Bulls have been surpassing every benchmark in sight, including Hidden Pivot resistances of var
ious degree and prior peaks such as the one at 146^21 labeled in the chart (click on inset). We’ll need to see a pullback and a follow-through (C-D) leg to get a precise idea of how much buying power is behind the rally, but the fact that we’ve seen no retracements on the daily chart for two weeks is certainly encouraging. The move has been strong enough that even a pullback to as low as 143^00 would not diminish the promising look of the daily chart. Turning the weekly chart bullish is another matter, however, since that would require a rally exceeding 164^31, an important peak that lies far above. A print there would break the back of the bear market begun nearly three years ago. _______ UPDATE (April 10, 8:57 p.m.): Bulls have shown no spunk lately, but the short-term picture is mildly bullish nonetheless. You can use the 147^17 target shown as a minimum upside objective if the futures leap above the red line (146^05). ________ UPDATE (April 12, 5:05 p.m.): The futures came down so hard today that it will offer a good test of the ‘mechanical’ buy signal tripped at 145^15 (the green line), stop 144^24. I’m recommending that you paper trade this one to increase your familiarity with ‘mechanical’ trades, most particularly unenticing ones like this, which I’d rate a mere ‘6’ out of 10. _______ UPDATE (April 16, 5:35 p.m.) A gratuitous feint beneath 144^25 this morning stopped out the trade. Since there are now fewer bulls aboard to weigh the futures down, the so-far spritely bounce should easily carry to 146^16 or higher over the next couple of days. If not, take it as a sign of more weakness to come. Otherwise, you can use 147^14 as a rally target. _______ UPDATE (April 17, 11:28 p.m.): A moderate rally stalled at 146^02, the midpoint Hidden Pivot associated with the 147^14 target. IF the futures can get past it, look for a follow-through to exactly 147^14. You can short there with a strop-loss as tight as three ticks._______UPDATE (April 18, 11:02 a.m.): The futures have pulled back to the green line after topping to-the-exact-tick at the 146^02 midpoint pivot associated with the 147^14 target. This makes x=145^12 a weak ‘mechanical’ buy, but I’ll suggest passing it up, since we were already burned once on a dip below ‘C’. You can still short the little hoser as suggested above, but I’d prefer that you do so ONLY if you’ve made a few bucks on the way up.
