Earlier, I wrote here that a decisive push by crude above $70 would be warning of possible war in the Middle East. The June contract is at that threshold now, seemingly driven in recent days more by speculation over whether Trump will ditch the Iran nuclear deal than by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. It’s possible that both factors are about to drive crude prices to levels not seen since 2014.  The NYMEX contract shot up as high as 70.84 on Monday before receding by more than $2 a barrel later in the day. Whatever the reason for the reversal, it would be premature and unwise to conclude that peace and good will are about to break out in the Middle East. In fact, from a technical perspective, June Crude’s slight move past $70.21 early in the session was nearly sufficient to put an 82.51 target in play (see inset). All it would take to make that ‘Hidden Pivot’ resistance an odds-on bet to be reached would be a two-day close above 70.21. The stock market may be able to shrug off rising interest rates, at least for a while, but bulls are going to wither fast if crude is on its way to 82.51. _______ UPDATE (May 9, 8:50 p.m. EDT): The gnarly pattern shown in this chart yields a 72.88 target that you can use a minimum upside objective for Thursday.  If it’s easily exceeded, take that as a sign still more upside impends. _______ UPDATE (May 10, 8:17 p.m.): The 72.88 target is still viable.  It also looks capable of producing a precise and potentially tradeable reversal, give or take a few cents.________ UPDATE (May 13, 10:54 p.m.): The futures have fallen without hitting the 72.88 rally target, but it remains viable nonetheless.  Now, the breach of a minor ‘hidden’ support at 70.30 would augur more downside to at least 70.01, but any lower would begin to shift the odds on a quick move up to 72.88. UPDATE (May 17, 12:24 p.m.): Drilling down into the daily all signals point to higher prices. We had a nice bounce of p confirming a daily pattern corresponding with 73.88 being the next stop.