This has been a very significant correction so far, for sure, but it looks like it has farther to go — presumably into the high $50s or low $60s. The news cycle regarding crude prices has become more expansive, suggesting that although the Saudis still control supply at the margin, they are in no rush to run up prices and tax the world anew. I still foresee another major upthrust, but we shouldn’t be surprised if, absent an exogenous geopolitical shock, it takes at least several months for bulls to build a base. The threat of war between Iran and Israel has somewhat receded because Syria seems ready to kick Iran out of the region, having wearied of Israeli strikes against bases on which Iran has stored weaponry and military gear. _______ UPDATE (June 4, 6:42 p.m. EDT): Bulls staged a feeble last hurrah before dropping beneath the 65.12 midpoint support shown. My forecast has called for a decline into the low $60s or even high $50s, but this latest price action gives us a specific target at D=61.57 to shoot at. A rally to the green line in the meantime could be shorted ‘mechanically’, stop 68.68._______ UPDATE (June 12, 6:21 p.m.): Buyers have been hanging tough — tougher than I’d expected, for sure. For now, use a 66.82 target (30-minute chart, A= 64.27 on 6/6; B=66.24). I will put out a fresh and presumably bullish guidance if the July contract simply blows through that Hidden Pivot._______ UPDATE (June 14, 11;14 p.m.): The futures bettered the 66.82 target, but not by much. However, the v-shaped correction suggests buyers have plenty of energy left. If they pulverize the 67.26 pivot shown, look for more upside on Friday to at least 67.63 (30-minute, A=65.89 on 6/13 at 10:00 a.m.) _______ UPDATE (June 17): Here we come, 61.57! (Daily chart, A= 72.90, B=65.80.) Let me acknowledge that I missed a textbook-perfect ‘mechanical’ short at 66.90. Here’s the chart._______ UPDATE (June 18, 9:46 p.m.): I’m taking crude off the sheets for a while, since its histrionics are wearing me out.
