Misinterpreting the Markets

EST

Elsewhere on the page, I’ve detailed the case for a nearly 300-point rally in the S&P 500.  This goes squarely against my gut feeling that the U.S. economy will be in recession before the year ends.  The chart I’ve presented starkly refutes this. It says the economy is more likely to stumble along, producing stock-market rallies that will seem illogical at best, reckless at worst. However, given the inexorable flow of money into U.S. stocks, especially from places where economic prospects seem even dimmer, it is hardly farfetched to predict that rallies that shouldn’t happen…will happen.  They will continue to plague ‘logical’ folk as long as a fund manager still breathes. Along the way, said money manager will have staunch help from short-covering bears, few of whom will ever understand their key role in misinterpreting the psychology of markets.

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none June 1, 2018, 10:14 am

The ZB weekly reversal last week and bullish engulfing pattern, along with the long term ‘RSI spring’ suggest that the long decline in the bond contract is over and an end towards rising interest rates. To confirm such a longer term turn in rates the ZB moving over this years high point of 158-09 will suggest that a new move in rates to all time lows will again appear.

A major low in the ZB contract is in place and observing the ‘quarterly’ high point of 152-29 level is a precursor that the low is in for the next 2-3 years.

Have a great weekend Rick.

John Jay June 1, 2018, 9:40 am

As I chart the obvious decline of Western Civilization, I look back to the Great Initiator, the First World War. One can make a convincing argument that the surrender of Western Europe to Islam is the final chapter of a sad book that has WWI as the first chapter.

Here are three links that can provide some very interesting weekend reading relating to this saga:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2013/01/03/the-1870-1914-gold-standard-the-most-perfect-one-ever-created/#2fb4130d4a6a

https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/war_finance_great_britain_and_ireland

https://www.marxist.com/wwi-part-nine-usa-and-the-war.htm

The first one reveals that no currency back then was 100% gold backed, but nothing approaching the insanity of today’s finance.

The second one goes into some detail of how Great Britain twisted and turned financially to keep the slaughter going as the best and brightest of all sides were sacrificed. Their best efforts only left Germany eager for a re-match 20 years later!

The last one is rather one-sided but it does make some valid points in any case.

Good reading!



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