Monday’s plunge was so exhilarating that permabears could be forgiven for making whoopee after the close. How soon we forget how extremely rare it is for the stock market to sell off for more than a couple of days! In this instance the upturn came midway through day two, producing a sufficiently vigorous rally to suggest that some of the FAANG stocks could be at new record highs by week’s end. That wouldn’t change the fact that institutional investors face some very serious headwinds if they intend to drag the broad averages to new highs as well. The negatives bear repeating, since they amount to more than just a wall of worry. To wit: 1) Fed ‘tapering’ is shrinking the world’s supply of dollars even as the U.S. central bank continues to raise rates; 2) the housing market appears to have peaked, and we’ll know soon whether corporate earnings have, too; 3) a global trade war actually seems possible; maybe Trump isn’t just bluffing? 3) the price of oil remains stubbornly high and is threatening to move above $70/barrel; 4) a strong dollar is undermining the profits of U.S. multinationals; 5) the magnitude of ‘creative destruction’ going on in commercial real estate is beyond anything classical economists could have imagined; and, 6) off-line retailers of every stripe, including even McDonald’s, are struggling to keep profit margins from falling to zero. These things together may not add up to a hill of beans for portfolio managers who make their living throwing OPM at fewer than a dozen stocks, but those of us who have actual skin in the game can read the signs and prepare for a day of reckoning that is as certain as tomorrow’s sunrise.
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Tuesday, Sept 11, 2018
The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.
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