I’d expected stocks to fall as the week began because of tariff-war fears raised by the G7 summit, but traders were clearly unfazed, pushing the Dow to a small net gain on Monday. At this point I’d rate the 25803 target shown a 90% shot to be hit within the next 3-5 days, if not sooner. It has been aired here before, but last Wednesday’s pop past the red line, a midpoint ‘Hidden Pivot’, all but guaranteed a successful finishing stroke. If there’s a pullback first to the red line, that would generate a ‘mechanical’ buy signal with a 24,765 stop-loss. However, we can greatly reduce the entry risk by executing the trade ‘camouflage’-style on the one- or three-minute bar chart if the opportunity arises. A retracement to the green line — unlikely, in my opinion — would trip a mechanical buy signal even more compelling than the one detailed above. It would be so juicy, actually, that I could even see using options in DIA to play the expected reversal. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care. _______UPDATE (June 12, 6:04 p.m. EDT): Buyers will need to pick up the pace if they’re going to push this brick to 25803 by week’s end. One possibility is that the non-news due out from the Fed tomorrow will nevertheless goose the markets, leaving residual energy to finish out the week. Another possibility is that the broad averages will remain comatose for longer than we might prefer._______ UPDATE (June 13. 4:52 p.m.): The session ended with a dive. If sellers follow through on Thursday, chances of the Indoos hitting 25803 over the near term will collapse. Indeed, the Dow could be on its way down to 23,298, a 1900-point fall, or even to 22,947. _______ UPDATE (June 14, 10:48 p.m.): We’ll know bears are ready to rumble if the Indoos trash the 25045 ‘D’ support shown in this chart.
