The futures have moved very predictably lately, tracing out new lows that have bounced at or very near minor Hidden Pivot supports. I’d projected such a reversal from the 1246.40 target shown, and it came on Friday as expected. The actual low was 1246.90 — four ticks above the 1246.50 bid, stop 1245.90, that I’d advised in the chat room (see my 13:45 post on 6/28). Since no one reported using this target to get long, I have not established a tracking position. My next target lies at 1235.90, a middling ‘hidden’ support that should generate a bounce as precise as the ones that have preceded it. This is my minimum downside projection for the near term, and your trading bias should therefore remain bearish until such time as it is reached. It would take an upthrust to 1274.50 this week to suggest buyers might be emerging from their coma. ______ UPDATE (July 2, 5:05 p.m.): Exuberant as an infant’s funeral, August Gold is closing on my 1235.90 target more quickly than I might have imagined. We should pay close attention — and bottom-fish with a very tight stop-loss — when it gets there, if only because the idea of getting long in gold is enough to induce nausea in some investors. There is not quite blood running in the streets, but there are enough rivulets to suggest it’s time to give our contrarian instincts free rein.______UPDATE (July 4, 9:12 a.m.): We’ll take Tuesday’s impulsive rally seriously, based on the contrarian logic stated above. It is vexatious that the futures missed hitting our bid by just $3, but it is also incipiently bullish that this occurred — the moreso if the rally continues to exceed prior peaks. It has done so twice on the hourly chart over the last two trading days, but the implications would grow still more bullish if and when some prior peaks on the daily chart are surpassed. The first of them lies at 1274.40, about $17 above. I’d suggest setting an alert there, since a print a tick above that number would be good news. _______ UPDATE (July 9, 10:37 p.m.): Monday’s price action put a gratuitous hump on the intraday charts. Even so, it brought the futures within $7.50 of the key threshold at 1274.40 noted above, and that’s progress. I am establishing a tracking position, long four contracts at 1258.10, because two subscribers have reported doing a trade there based on this ‘mechanical’ set-up. It is about as ‘textbook’ as such opportunities get. For now, plan to take half off at p=1264.00. If you hold just a single contract implement a trailing stop or impulsive stop there that will protect at least a part of your profits if p is achieved._______UPDATE (July 10, 9:47 a.m.): Gold sank like a stone overnight, stopping out a four-contract tracking position for a loss of about $2400. I would take this latest discouragement as a sign that there are deeper problems. The bullish drumbeat has been louder than usual lately, and I was ready to believe that the move off the July 3 low might be the start of something significant. However, I doubt this now. Gold still shows too strong a propensity to hurt and deceive bulls to be ready for flight. This suggests the bulls are still too ‘hopeful’, and that they may have to be shaken out viciously and precipitously to generate a lasting bottom. My gut feeling is that when the bull market resumes, it will be with a spectacular leap that will leave even bullion’s most ardent fans choking on dust and understandably reluctant to jump in at the sensational new price.
