Say this for the E-Mini S&Ps, the short-term swings are about as predictable as the timing of the next sunrise. Since several subscribers reported getting short today using a 2874.25 rally target I’d disseminated here a week ago, I’m establishing a tracking position consisting of four contracts and suggesting that you cover half now with the futures trading around 2861.  That would leave you two short contracts with an adjusted cost basis of 2887.  I will further recommend that you cover a third contract at 2858.00, worked o-c-o with an ‘impulsive’ stop-loss on the entire position at 2869.50.

Hidden Pivot ‘Tricks’

Today’s actual high at 2874.00 fell just a single tick shy of my target. Those of you who got short may recall that Hidden Pivot analysis also nailed the start of the rally within two ticks when the futures bottomed a week ago at 2803.00. Such marksmanship comes easily when you know a few Hidden Pivot tricks. However, it is far more difficult in practice to actually trade these targets, even when they are hit very precisely. The reason was evident as the futures made their way toward this latest target. Their ascent over the last five days was in ratcheting spurts, with each marginal new high giving way to pullbacks bigger than what a trader would have made holding from one peak to the next. Bottom line, if you are keeping risk:reward constant at 1:3 as I always recommend, it is impossible to profit on a trade using a buy-and-hold strategy, even when you are confident the target will be reached.  That is not to say that high-odds targets are not useful, since, at the very least, they will keep you confidently on the right side of the trend from start to finish. ______ UPDATE (August 22, 10:20 p.m. EDT): Since this vehicle seems to have an enthusiastic following among subscribers — more than I would have guessed, anyway — I’ll mention the 2854.63 midpoint HP support shown in this chart. It looks potentially tradable using the tightest stop-loss you can abide.  ________ UPDATE (August 23, 4:48 p.m.):  Several subscribers reported making money with the 2854.63 target provided above when the future bounced sharply from within half-tick of it. Much as I’d like to take credit for hitting a dead-center bullseye, this chart shows that the initial ‘hidden’ support was negated when the futures rallied above the original point ‘C’ of the pattern; the new midpoint support lay at 2856.13. Under the circumstances, subscribers who profited would have needed a stop-loss of at least 1.75 points to hold a bottom-fished position. That’s a little more than I usually advise, although certainly in the ballpark for traders inclined to give the sonofabitch a little more room. I won’t bother making any predictions for Friday, since I don’t see any set-ups that promise to be lay-ups, nor even a pattern sufficiently promising for a confident trend call.