As my friend the late Malcolm Watts used to say, if you’re going to try to catch a falling piano, wait until it has bounced three times.  This glue-horse-of-a-stock hasn’t bounced in a year-and-a-half, and there’s no particular reason to think it will do so from the 0.94 bid we patiently entered weeks ago. Accordingly, I will suggest canceling the trade and waiting until the stock falls to the 0.50 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown (see inset) before we step in. Granted, at 0.94 we’d have sidestepped a bloodbath that has cut the stock in half in just the last month. But that would be nothing to gloat over if NGD turns out to be on its way down to 0.50. At that level it would be either a decent buy — “A bargain!” — or a good bet to fall to zero.  Accordingly, I’ll recommend bidding 0.52 for as many shares as you can afford to see become worthless.

No Mere ‘Hole in the Ground’

New Gold is a company with substantial assets in the Western Hemisphere and Australia, so it’s not as though we’d be buying the proverbial hole in the ground with a liar standing above it. On the other hand, bullion and precious metal assets are currently being valued by most investors as though they were garbage. Why reward them for this egregious misjudgment? There is no urgency here, nor should we feel remorseful if the stock reverses from somewhere above our lowered bid and heads for the ozone. That is sufficiently unlikely, in my view, to warrant taking a shot from these levels._______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 1:35 p.m.): I suggested bidding 0.70 in the chat room this morning, based on this pattern. Coincidentally, that was just moments  before the stock took its biggest single-day leap of the year, stranding our bid by seven cents. Oh well. The rally is attributable to New Gold’s change of leadership, with Renaud Adams replacing Raymond Threlkeld as CEO. _______UPDATE (Sep 12, 7:03 p.m): Lay low for now, since we only buy on weakness.