AAPL has gotten socked over the last five days, but sellers have yet to surpass a key support beneath which the stock would generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Even then, the big picture would remain bullish, albeit with diminishing authority if the downtrend were to continue to exceed ‘external’ lows, especially doing so without much pause. The next such low lies at 208.33, but in the meantime we should monitor upward abcd corrections, since they would be telegraphing yet more weakness if they fail to reach their respective ‘d’ targets._______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 5:08 p.m.): A follow-through to at least 224.93, the ‘D’ target shown in this chart, looks like a no-brainer at the moment. Since AAPL is a trillion dollar stock, we might expect it to pull the broad averages higher or at least keep them buoyant when the new week begins. If buyers blow past the target, it would add even more bullishness to the big picture. ________ UPDATE (Oct 15, 9;56 p.m.): Friday’s giddy end-of-day rally reversed sharply as the new weeks began. It smells like distribution, but we won’t know until we’ve seen more weakness. A midpoint Hidden Pivot at 215.41 is a logical place for a bounce, and you can bottom-fish there with a tight stop-loss. If it gives way, however, expect more slippage to 207.94. Here’s the chart. _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 12:07 p.m.): The bounce we were expecting was strong and came from a 216.76 low, stranding our niggardly bid. A move today above 224.40 would re-energize the hourly chart by creating a fresh impulse leg.______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 5:50 p.m.): Today’s sloppy price action changed nothing in my forecast. ________ UPDATE (Oct 18, 11:13 p.m.): The stock gapped down on the opening bar and continued to fall before finding a foothold at p=215.52. Any lower and it should be presumed headed to the 208.04 target shown here.
