Some Bear-Market Porn to Titillate You

EST

[The following was posted by Seneca in the Rick’s Picks forum. I am sharing it with readers on the home page because I assume many of you find bear-market titillation — or porn, as it is affectionately known at ZeroHedge — as irresistible as I do. RA]

The Dow Industrials are turning — have already turned in many respects. Their current, all-time high is a market-walk ‘alone’, as Joe Granville was wont to say decades ago.  Major indexes are not confirming the high. Meanwhile, Apple and Amazon, have been responsible for nearly 30% of the S&P 500’s gain this year alone. More important are divergences seen in the last two trading days, with the Dow rising as most of the FAANG stocks got hit.

Dow Will Fall by 70%

In the bear market just ahead, look for the Industrial Average to shed up to 70% of its value over the next 2-3 years. Capitulation of the bond market is about to start as well, with a downward spike in the months ahead. Long-Term Treasurys currently trading for around 140 will fall to 128, creating a major buying opportunity for years to come. Big specs, a contrary indicator, are short to-the-moon.

We watch closely and look for triggers — signs that stocks are about to fall apart. But seldom do we get it right. ‘What is obvious is always obviously wrong,’ according to the old saw.  Complacency is what makes black swans black.

Comments on this entry are closed.

watcher7 October 3, 2018, 3:39 am

The Dow can’t top out until it goes over 32,452 – making it not only the longest rally but also its richest.

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In the touts section of this newsletter, I’ve projected as high as 34,450, with potentially trend-ending Hidden Pivot resistances at 27,251 and 28,897. But in fact there is no rule that says the Dow must exceed 32,452 before it tops, and however bullish our outlook, we need to be ready in case it does not.
RA



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