All roads point relentlessly south, but there are too many ‘D’ targets of varying degree to get a confident handle on whence the inevitable upturn will occur. Instead, let’s simplify the outlook by setting a screen alert at 57.42. That’s where the January contract would exceed the two ‘external’ peaks we require to generate an impulse leg on the 240-minute chart. The higher is of a lesser degree than the lower, but it’ll do for our purpose, which is to know with confidence when crude’s rally has turned into the real McCoy rather than just another dead-cat bounce. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1): The January contract is struggling to hold above the 49.68 midpoint pivot shown here. If it is decisively breached, that would put the pattern’s 46.80 ‘D’ target in play._______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 9:53 p.m.): News of a cease fire on tariffs between Messrs. Trump and Xi has turned the 49.68 midpoint support noted above into a launching pad. The recent lows there should hold for a while.
