Ricks Picks

Finally, a Dead-Cat Bounce Worthy of the Name!


Finally, a bear rally worthy of the name! The Dow exploded for a record 1086 points on Wednesday, bouncing the proverbial dead cat nearly to the second floor. Adding a few more floors in the weeks ahead won’t bring kitty back to life, but it will probably suffice to restore some hubris and bravado to the Big Con. We can be certain of one thing — that wherever and whenever the rally peaks, it will set up bulls for their inevitable transformation into road kill. Mr. Market, so very felicitous now and then, will be revving up his Mack truck around the time Jim Cramer gives the all-clear and pundits are wondering how investors could ever have lost faith even momentarily.

Right on Schedule

Rick’s Picks’ recent track record provides encouragement for thinking subscribers will be properly warned before this occurs. For weeks, we’ve been telling them to stay glued to Apple shares, the better to determine exactly when the stock market’s bullish turn would occur. Right on schedule, as it happened — just as AAPL was bottoming Monday within 45 cents of a $145.66 target bulletined two crucial days earlier.  We reiterated our confidence in an email Tuesday night that was headlined ‘A Last-Ditch Chance for AAPL to Turn the Tide’. Following is what we said. Judge for yourself whether it would have made you money, or at least kept you out of trouble:

It’s hard to imagine AAPL not bouncing from the 145.66 target shown. (It was proffered here earlier as a minimum downside objective.) Monday’s plunge came within 45 cents of this Hidden Pivot support during the holiday-shortened session — close enough for us to infer that a bottom of at least short-term importance is in. If so, expect the stock to lead the broad averages higher when trading resumes on Wednesday. This has been a risky assumption for the last two weeks, to put it mildly, since both AAPL and the broad averages have traded as though weighed down by mountainous supply. Rallies have stalled and then reversed punitively, while days that have begun with weakness simply grew worse.

My gut feeling is that tax selling will keep pressure on shares during the final week of the year. If they are going to rally, however, the best chance to do so will be with AAPL, arguably the most important stock-market bellwether of them all, torqued for a rebound. If conditions look favorable before the opening bell on Wednesday, we’ll look at expiring, near-the-money calls for a potential leveraged play. Stay tuned to the chat room if you want to stay on top of this opportunity, especially if you’ve never made money trading options.

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Comments on this entry are closed.

none December 27, 2018, 11:47 am

The VIX is like a ‘rock’, and ready to show ‘teeth’ market volatility during these traditionally quiet this time of year, suggesting something is in the wind.

This next low point observing about 8-12% ‘below’ yesterday low, will turn the ‘switch’. This INDU low point is the change, as the DXY is at the same pricing from the 07/01/2016 yield low point having not move an inch in pricing.

The 3 yearly ‘Evening Star Pattern’ in DXY will come into birthing a major new low, as the 3 year ‘Morning Star Pattern’ in EC birthing a major Bull market towards all time highs. Sentiment in the EU world could not be better for such a ‘switch’. Moving GC to double ‘twice’…

It will be this INDU low ahead in the next 10 trading days that a 30%+ drop and better in DXY will hit the markets like a ton of bricks dropped off a high building.

The DOW TRAN index has retrace and created a ‘yearly’ mind YOU! Bearish engulfing pattern as trains and planes and cars are about to move towards ‘depression’ levels of travel.

By April May/2019 we may see an entire ‘new’ FED, or maybe no FED at all.

1% prime rate dead ahead.

Observe ZB monthly 20 trading high of 158-09 as confirming process towards the above.

Happy New Year.

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Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

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