Hard selling on Friday generated a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart that could grow still more powerful if the weakness exceeds 1281.50 in the days ahead. The effect would be even stronger if this were to occur with an upward correction lasting at least two days. This seems likely, given the pounding gold took last week. It included a ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal on Friday that produced only a disappointing, fleeting rebound where we might have expected a longer-lasting trampoline bounce. As dispiriting as this must have been for bulls, the futures will have a chance to bottom Sunday night at 1290.50, a minor Hidden Pivot support that I flagged in the chat room Friday afternoon when the futures were trading $10 higher. ______ UPDATE (Mar 5, 5:25 p.m.): The futures would need to hit 1299.10 within the next day or two to trigger a ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal. That is their last best hope for now, since a further drop would suggest gold could grope its way down into the range 1220-1250 before it is fully corrected. Here’s the chart. ______ UPDATE (Mar 10): Friday’s robust rally did in fact trigger the buy signal noted above. This means we should use p=1315.00 as a minimum upside target for now. The signal would look better if gold opens Sunday night with a lurch higher. _______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 8:07 p.m.): What a stretch. Gold has gotten sledge-hammered for the umpteenth time after coming within a few inches of an ‘easy’ rally target. The hourly chart is still bullish and the 1315.00 target still valid, at least in theory. Wake me when it gets there. Zzzzzzzz.
